Flood risk and vulnerability assessment due to dam break

01.Dec.2025

​This study assesses flood vulnerability and risk downstream of the King Talal Dam, located within the Zarqa River Watershed. A comprehensive dataset, including geospatial, hydrological, and socio-economic data, was utilized. The Hershfield method was applied to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP), and the resulting probable maximum flood (PMF), with a peak flow of 4300 m3/s, was calculated using the HEC-HMS model with the SCS-CN method. Dam breach parameters were estimated using the Froehlich (2008) model, resulting in breach widths of 82 m and 55 m, and breach development times of 0.82 h and 0.68 h for overtopping and piping failure scenarios, respectively. Dam breach flow was estimated at 45,000 m3/s for overtopping and 29,000 m3/s for piping failure scenarios. Maximum flood depths reached 60 m and 50 m, while maximum flood velocities in Deir Alla were 50 m/s and 23 m/s …